Some Thoughts on the Election

Pull up a chair. This could take a few minutes.

First of all, I am a little surprised at how surprised people are at the election results. True enough, I had written off Trump a while back, but the polling numbers were hardly such as to make Trump’s victory an impossibility, especially considering how bad the polling has been all year. What’s more, though no Republican presidential candidate had won Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin in three decades, none of these states are exactly rock-ribbed blue states, in particular Wisconsin and Michigan. Republicans have done well in state-level elections in all three states, as well as House and Senate races. Sure they are states of a purplish-bluish hue, but they are not Massachusetts and California.

For my own part, I was more accurate about Trump’s chances a year ago than I was a month ago. I am probably one of the few anti-Trump conservatives who never wrote off his general election chances, and as recently as a few months ago I actually thought he had better than even odds to win a general election, if for no other reason than Hillary’s putridness as a candidate. But I was swayed by the poll numbers, even as Clinton never achived 50% in those polls. Whatever the case, my opposition to Trump was ideological and character-based, not on his shortcomings as a potential general election candidate.

Before getting into what Trump’s presidency portends, it is perhaps worth taking a moment to note that, as much as internecine warfare has riven the Republican party, the Democrats are an absolute mess. Yes, they managed a two-seat Senate pickup and a few seats in the House, but their party is in shambles electorally. Republicans control governernorships and state houses in every part of the country, they still have a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives, a majority in the Senate, and now the presidency (well, kind of). Meanwhile, not only are the Democrats in a weakened state, they are not exactly brimming with a deep bench of young, shining stars. Certainly electoral fortunes can change in the blink of an eye, as we all learned in 2009-2010, but right now the Democrat party is the one on the precipice of annihilation.

When you throw that in with the general trend of Republicans running ahead of Trump in most states, and you do wonder if perhaps some of the narratives about Trump’s victory aren’t a bit overblown. As has been the case throughout the year, the anti-Establishment, kick all the bums out mood seems to only apply to Trump, because otherwise incumbents did awfully well up and down this great country. And then there’s the fact that Trump received fewer outright votes than Romney, and it does call into question how much of a revolution just occurred.

That being said, it would be a mistake to completely discount how much Trump was able to tap into the angry mood of much of the electorate, particularly of working class Americans. As someone said on Facebook, would another Republican have won Youngstown, Ohio? I still believe Rubio, Cruz, Walker, or just about any other Republican could have defeated Clinton, but Trump was the one who did, and he did so while completely defying just about every rule of electoral politics. So he deserves grudging respect for that accomplishment.

So where are we now? Like many non-Trump supporting conservatives, I earnestly hope my misgivings  about Trump prove to be unfounded. I’ll be genuinely happy to watch Donald Trump become a champion of liberty, limited government, and constitutionalism. Yet I also know that’s probably not going to happen.

While I take a certain glee in seeing Hillary Clinton rebuffed, it doesn’t erase who Trump is and what he has stood for his entire life. I still do not trust him to make wise Supreme Court appointments, and I certainly have no faith in his ability or willingness to completely transform the rest of the judiciary. Again, I honestly pray I’m wrong. But I doubt I am.

Meanwhile the Republican party, and the American republic for that matter, is at a true turning point in its history. Right now there are three main factions battling for the heart of the party: conservatives, the “Establishment,”* and now the Trumpublicans. Right now  Donald Trump is really the only elected member of this latter faction, yet it is the one gaining power. This mish-mosh of economic populists and outright bigots (this is not an overlapping group, per se) has a powerful voice. Therefore conservatives are fighting a two-front battle within their own party.

*Yeah, I hate the term myself, but it is a useful short-hand for moderates and spineless conservatives.

Despite Trump’s win, I find myself somewhat more optimistic than I did a day ago. Republican victories won by good, solid conservatives (for the most part) reminds us that conservatives remain a strong part of this tattered coalition, and perhaps the strongest for now. It is possible that despite the demographic changes taking place, the cause of liberty has not quite been extinguished.

Yet we will have to fight harder than we ever have before to make sure our ideals are the ones which prevail in the fight to come. Conservatives need to continue making our case, carefully and convincingly. It means shedding some of the cliches we’ve grown accustomed to relying on, and truly  digging deep into first principles. Most importantly, it requires some self-reflection (though not too much, because naval gazing is tedious if overdone), and a LOT of listening. Instead of dismissing the concerns of the Trumpublicans, we need to truly comprehend where they are coming fromand to speak to them in a language that doesn’t leave them feeling cold. And not just them – other Americans who we tend to casually dismiss.

It also will require ditching some of the institutions which have failed us. It means tuning out the infotainment wing. I’m not into purges, but we have got to turn off Rush, Hannity, and others and start thinking a little more critically. They may have served a useful purpose at one time, but they are now active detriments to our movement.

One last thing before I close out. I absolutely opposed Donald Trump from day one and didn’t think twice before writing in Evan McMullin on Tuesday. Yet I sense I do not have quite the same visceral hatred of Trump as some other Trump opponents on the right, and certainly not as much as the left. While I completely sympathize and agree with most of the concerns about his character, disposition, and ideology, as alluded to in my previous post the anti-Trump rhetoric has gotten completely out of hand. Look, if Trump’s victory caused you to break down in tears and/or skip work today, then maybe you need to reexamine your priorities. Donald Trump is not going to repeal the 13th Amendment. He is not shipping off every person with brown skin. In fact it’s more likely he’s signing off on amnesty legislation a year from now than he is to be adding the final brick to his wall. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were both awful candidates – too awful to vote for, yet not so awful that it justified voting for the other. So if you’re absolutely despondent over Trump’s victory, get a freaking hold of yourself and chill out.

And with that, I’m completely spent when it comes to contemporary politics. Every sign-on to Facebook and Twitter is a near occasion of sin as I interact with people on both sides who make me wish to punch a computer screen. So I’m signing off of Twitter, or at least am muting all political-related accounts, for the rest of the year. I’m also dialing back on Facebook, and will not be reading political blogs. I hope to continue hammering away here, time permitting, but mainly to continue with my American project series. I need to recharge my batteries and will get back to contemporary events in January.

It’s (not) the End of the World as We Know It

A useful corrective from Kevin Williamson on the apocalyptic rhetoric coming from TeamKang Clinton and Team Kodos Trump.

But here’s the thing: The United States of America is not a wreck. We have some real problems and real challenges, from the national debt to the Islamic State. But we also are incredibly rich, free, peaceful, prosperous, innovative, productive, and, in our better moments, sober, with a record of responsible self-government unrivaled anywhere in the world. Trumpkin rhetoric notwithstanding, we are not being overrun by Third World hordes and pillaged by wily Chinamen. Mrs. Clinton’s bed-wetting notwithstanding, Americans are not dying in the streets, Dallas doesn’t look very much like Dhaka, and we are not on the precipice of fascism. There is not going to be any revolution or coup d’état whichever candidate wins on Tuesday, and the Democrats who swore there was one in 2000 were as wrong and irresponsible then as they are today. This is not the end. The people who are telling you that it is — on both sides — are trying to sell you something.

Don’t buy it. On Tuesday, those who vote will have a choice between A and B. On Wednesday, there will be choices, too: about our jobs, our businesses, our families, our schools, our churches, and cities and states, what we tweet and what we post on Facebook. Citizenship doesn’t start and stop on a Tuesday in November, and voting is hardly the full, or even the most important, expression of what we owe our country, which includes what we owe to those who came before and those who come after. It wasn’t elections that built this country, as important as those are. We will survive Election Day 2016 and its consequences. And we will have exactly the sort of country we choose to have, because there is nobody building it but us.

Yesterday I came across this on Facebook:

Another morning, deeper depression at how it is that the cheeto-faced, ferret-wearing shit-gibbon is going to be elected president and the other choice inspires nothing. Guess we can all look forward to weakened civil rights, resurgent religious tests, increased health care costs, trade wars, more expensive consumer goods and a widening divide between haves and have nots. Congrats, ‘Murcia; you’ve been fooled again

I’m no fan of Trump at all, but to say this is overwrought would be a reverse form of hyperbole. (Is that underbole?) While I think a Trump victory would be damaging from a long-term perspective, perhaps permanently eliminating any hopes of there being a viable limited government, constitutionalist party, I think the above paragraph reflects both an exaggerated view of the presidency and of what a Trump victory would establish in America.

Of course I’ve seen just as much tripe from people who have persuaded themselves to vote for Trump because a Clinton victory would mean the end of religious freedom and the dawning of a new era of red communism in America.

Unfortunately about 90 percent of the voting public is convinced that victory on the other side will be the downfall of the republic. I’m not unsympathetic to the concerns of Trump voters in particular. After all, one of the reasons I won’t be voting for either of these two individuals is precisely because I think both of them would be terrible presidents. Yet I don’t think either is such an indelible threat it justifies voting for the other. America will be worse off regardless of who wins, but it won’t mark the end of our American project. It will require renewed vigilance and dedication, as well as a willingness to carefully re-examine our behaviors and prejudices.

Sadly nothing I’ve witnessed in the past few months convinces me very many people are prepared for such a re-examination. If anything, it feels as though everyone has just doubled down on the attitudes that have driven us to this point. It’s one of the reasons I’m likely taking a very, very long break from politics post-election.